Likely Cyber Threats in 2026: From AI to Identity Theft

Cyber criminals are increasingly leveraging AI to automate and enhance their attacks. In 2026, we expect AI-driven threats to become more “agentic.” This means malicious AI systems will operate with a high degree of autonomy. Attackers are training custom AI models on stolen data. Their goal is to create sophisticated phishing campaigns, generate convincing deepfakes, and even carry out fraud without constant human direction. These autonomous AI attacks can adapt quickly and target systems at scale.

AI tools are becoming more embedded in business operations (through AI assistants, chatbots, and decision-making algorithms). As a result, they expand the potential attack surface. If not properly secured, integrations like AI-based plugins and APIs could be weak points that attackers exploit. Unlike traditional threats, AI-powered attacks can probe defences continuously and adjust their strategy in real time. They constantly search for gaps in security.

Organisations should be cautious about deploying AI systems without proper security vetting. Cyber Essentials focuses on basic controls. While it doesn’t specifically address AI, its core principles still apply when using such technology. For example, secure configuration and access control are vital when implementing AI-driven tools. Human oversight remains critical. Businesses should not rely solely on AI-driven decisions for security. Regular risk assessments should include any AI services in use, ensuring they have appropriate access restrictions and monitoring. In short, staying ahead of AI-enabled threats means combining human judgement with AI-enhanced defences.

Stealing login details and personal data has become a booming underground industry. Malware tools known as “infostealers” quietly infiltrate computers to grab usernames, passwords, browser data, and other sensitive information. 2025 saw an explosion in this trend – attackers stole billions of credentials without users’ knowledge. In 2026, these stolen credentials are set to become the launchpad for nearly every major cyber attack. Instead of breaking through technical barriers, cybercriminals will simply log in using legitimate details. In other words, they’ll walk through the front door of an organisation’s network.

Once attackers have valid credentials, they can impersonate employees or partners and move through systems undetected. This turns a stolen password into a skeleton key for ransomware deployment, financial fraud, data breaches, and more. It also means an organisation’s security isn’t just about its own network – it extends to the personal digital habits of staff and even third-party suppliers. A weak password or an employee falling for a scam at home can lead to a breach at work.

Cyber Essentials highlights the importance of access control and malware protection, which directly tie into this threat. Organisations must enforce strong password policies (ideally requiring multi-factor authentication wherever possible). They should also ensure antivirus and anti-malware tools are kept up to date to catch infostealers. Equally important is monitoring for compromised credentials. Businesses should establish processes or use services that detect if any employee passwords have leaked online. This way, compromised passwords can be reset before attackers use them. Regular staff training about phishing and safe browsing is also vital. Informed employees are the first line of defence against these stealthy attacks.

Cybersecurity defence often relies on a central system for tracking known software weaknesses – notably the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) database. In 2025, this system faced funding issues and uncertainty, exposing how fragile our current vulnerability tracking model can be. If the CVE database were to go offline or falter, many organisations would lose their primary source of vulnerability alerts and identifiers. Going into 2026, companies can’t assume this backbone will always be available. They need to prepare backup plans.

Most businesses depend on timely vulnerability information to patch systems (for instance, when a new software flaw is made public). Tools like scanners and intrusion detection systems rely on CVE IDs to recognise issues. Without a reliable central database, there could be delays or gaps in knowing what needs fixing. Additionally, the sheer volume of new vulnerabilities is growing. Even if CVE stays functional, not every threat gets a CVE entry quickly. Attackers might exploit lesser-known flaws before they become public knowledge.

A key requirement of Cyber Essentials is to keep software and devices updated (patch management). The potential CVE disruption in 2026 means organisations should diversify how they stay informed about vulnerabilities. This could involve subscribing to multiple threat intelligence feeds, following vendor security advisories directly, or using alternative databases like the EU’s vulnerability registry. The goal is to ensure you don’t miss critical updates even if one source fails. Furthermore, adopt a proactive mindset. Instead of waiting passively for a CVE alert, conduct regular vulnerability assessments or penetration tests as part of risk management. This approach ensures that even if global alert systems hiccup, your organisation stays aware of its weaknesses and can act quickly to patch or mitigate them.

Another of the likely cyber threats in 2026 : risks facing organisations aren’t confined to malware and hackers behind screens – they also spill over into the physical world. We’re seeing a convergence where cyber attacks and physical threats combine, especially targeting high-profile individuals like CEOs or other executives. For example, cyber tactics such as hacking or data theft might be used to facilitate real-world harassment or threats against an executive. Conversely, a physical incident (like the theft of a company laptop or ID badge) could provide the access needed for a cyber attack. This blend of threats is becoming more common, as criminals and even hostile nations use all available means to pressure or infiltrate targets.

Business leaders and key personnel hold the keys to an organisation’s most sensitive information. If attackers target them, the fallout can be significant. Consequences range from leaked strategic plans to personal safety risks. Attackers could mine an executive’s social media for intelligence to craft convincing scams or to intimidate them. A cyber breach might expose an executive’s travel schedule or home address, increasing real-world risks. These issues aren’t limited to global corporations; any organisation with public-facing leaders or valuable data could be in the crosshairs.

Traditional IT security measures need to connect with physical security and personal safety protocols. Cybersecurity teams should work closely with HR and executive protection teams. Organisations must ensure that executives and other high-access staff follow strong security practices. For example, they should use secure communication channels and avoid oversharing personal information on public platforms. Cyber Essentials covers important technical defences, but companies should go a step further for key personnel by implementing additional safeguards. These might include privacy awareness training, personal device security checks, and incident response plans tailored to scenarios that blend physical and cyber threats. By broadening risk assessments to include these hybrid threats, businesses can protect their people and their data more effectively.

Attackers are increasingly exploiting the trust between organisations and their people or partners. In 2025, many extortion attacks skipped the typical ransomware encryption. Instead, criminals stole sensitive data or credentials and threatened to leak them unless paid. Some groups also found ways into companies by targeting third parties. For instance, hackers might trick a vendor or use a contractor’s stolen login to breach a larger company. Attackers can also dupe an employee or supplier through phishing or “vishing” (voice phishing) phone calls. This tactic can open the door to an attack without the need to hack technical systems directly.

A weak link in your supply chain can become your organisation’s compromise. If cybercriminals breach a business partner, that risk can quickly spread to you. Similarly, if an attacker impersonates a trusted user with stolen credentials, they can operate within your systems and raise little suspicion. Such attacks often lead to extortion demands – a hacker might threaten to expose confidential data, causing reputational damage and potential fines, even if they never deployed malware on your network. In short, trust itself has become a vulnerability.

Companies should strengthen how they verify and trust both users and partners. For example, if someone contacts your staff claiming to be from IT support or a supplier and requests sensitive access, employees should verify that person’s identity through a second channel before complying. Encourage a culture of “zero trust” — never assume a request or connection is legitimate without checking. Cyber Essentials controls like strict access management and up-to-date software help reduce obvious weaknesses, but organisations must also assess third-party risks. Vet the security practices of key vendors and consider requiring them to have certifications such as Cyber Essentials as well. Regularly back up data (another Cyber Essentials best practice) so you can recover information if attackers try to hold it hostage. By double-checking identities and securing partnerships, businesses can greatly reduce the chance of a successful supply chain or impersonation attack.

The year 2026 promises significant developments in the cyber threat landscape. For UK organisations – especially those pursuing Cyber Essentials certification – these predictions are a call to action. Ensuring basic cyber hygiene (from strong access controls to regular patching) has never been more important, as these measures form the foundation to withstand new types of attacks. Yet, baseline controls alone are not enough; they should be part of a broader, forward-looking strategy. This means keeping informed about emerging threats, integrating cyber risk into business planning, and fostering a security-aware culture at every level.

By understanding these trends, businesses can prioritise defences where it counts. The trends highlighted above – autonomous AI attacks, the growing importance of identity security, potential cracks in vulnerability management, the need to protect executives, and the evolving nature of extortion – indicate where to focus. Cyber Essentials provides a strong baseline and is a great starting point. By continuously improving on that foundation and staying vigilant, your organisation will be not only compliant but also truly resilient against the threats ahead in 2026.